Cost of Brexit

Vote Leave promised the people of Wales, we would not be made worse off by Brexit, that reaching a new trade deal would be easy. 

In a poll commissioned by us and carried out by YouGov, an overwhelming majority of Wales is not prepared to pay anything for Brexit.

  • None 76%
  • £10 7%
  • £20 7%
  • £50 5%
  • £100 2%
  • £200 1%
  • More than £200 3%

Below is a table detailing the most recent GVA (the measure of the value of goods and services produced) figures for each local authority in Wales, and the effect a soft or hard Brexit would have on the local economy. This is used to calculate the figures on the right of the table.

 2015 GVA  Soft Loss  Hard Loss
 City  £ million  Soft Brexit  Hard Brexit  £ million  £ million
Blaenau Gwent 764 -1.20% -1.90% -£9.17 -£14.52
Bridgend 2,779 -1.20% -2.10% -£33.35 -£58.36
Caerphilly 2,417 -1.20% -1.90% -£29.00 -£45.92
Cardiff 9,016 -1.30% -2.50% -£117.21 -£225.40
Carmarthenshire 2,806 -1.00% -1.70% -£28.06 -£47.70
Ceredigion 1,258 -0.90% -1.80% -£11.32 -£22.64
Conwy 1,809 -1.00% -1.90% -£18.09 -£34.37
Denbighshire 1,561 -1.30% -2.10% -£20.29 -£32.78
Flintshire 3,644 -1.00% -1.70% -£36.44 -£61.95
Gwynedd 2,317 -1.10% -2.00% -£25.49 -£46.34
Merthyr Tydfil 915 -0.80% -1.50% -£7.32 -£13.73
Monmouthshire 1,888 -1.00% -1.80% -£18.88 -£33.98
Neath Port Talbot 2,142 -1.00% -1.40% -£21.42 -£29.99
Newport 3,081 -1.20% -2.10% -£36.97 -£64.70
Pembrokeshire 1,964 -1.00% -1.80% -£19.64 -£35.35
Powys 2,251 -1.00% -1.60% -£22.51 -£36.02
Rhondda Cynon Taf 3,663 -1.20% -2.10% -£43.96 -£76.92
Swansea 4,503 -1.10% -2.00% -£49.53 -£90.06
Torfaen 1,492 -1.20% -2.00% -£17.90 -£29.84
Vale of Glamorgan 2,028 -1.30% -2.30% -£26.36 -£46.64
Wrexham 2,553 -1.10% -1.70% -£28.08 -£43.40
Ynys Môn 938 -0.60% -1.10% -£5.63 -£10.32

(Source: Dhingra, Machin & Overman, 2017, Welsh Government, 2016)

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