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Key Welsh Marginals

ALL TO PLAY FOR

In this General Election Brexit will be the defining issue for this country. We have an historic opportunity to elect a Parliament that will deliver a new People’s Vote where we can have a final say. This will be achieved only through smart, tactical voting and campaigning.

Wales for Europe has no party affiliation. We do not back parties, but we will support candidates who will give the country a fresh opportunity to decide whether to leave the EU or stay. Wales for Europe will attempt to bring Welsh voters the fullest information on which to base their votes. We will update this information as necessary throughout the election period.

Wales has 40 constituencies. In the 2017 election, Wales returned 8 Conservatives, 4 Plaid Cymru and 28 Labour MPs. In the 2019 by-election in Brecon & Radnorshire, the Liberal Democrats gained a seat from the Conservatives.

 

Marginal Seats in Wales in 2015 and 2017

Conservative seats

ABERCONWY

A very tight race in 2017. Guto Bebb, a rebel Remainer Tory is stepping down. All tactical voting sites recommend voting for Labour here.

2015 Election 2017 Election
Votes % Votes %
Conservative 12,513 41.5 14,337 44.6
Labour 8,514 28.2 13,702 42.6
Plaid Cymru 3,536 11.7 3,170 9.9
Liberal Democrat 1,391 4.6 941 2.9
UKIP 3,467 11.5
Green Party 727 2.4
MAJORITY  3,999 13.3 635 2.0

 

CARMARTHEN WEST AND SOUTH PEMBROKESHIRE

Incumbent: Simon Hart. Tory majority cut sharply in 2017. All tactical voting sites recommend voting for Labour here.

2015 Election 2017 Election
Votes % Votes %
Conservative 17,626 43.7 19,771 46.8
Labour 11,572 28.7 16,661 39.5
Plaid Cymru 1,290 3.2 3,933 9.3
Liberal Democrat 963 2.4 956 2.3
UKIP 4,698 11.6 905 2.1
MAJORITY  6,054 15.0 3,110 7.3

 

CLWYD WEST

Incumbent: David Jones, arch Brexiteer. Was thought to be stepping down, but clearly not. Big jump for Labour to capture. All tactical voting sites recommend voting for Labour here.

2015 Election 2017 Election
Votes % Votes %
Conservative 16,463 43.3 19,541 48.1
Labour 9,733 25.6 16,104 39.6
Plaid Cymru 4,651 12.2 3,918 10
Liberal Democrat 1,387 3.6 1,091 2.7
UKIP 4,988 13.1
MAJORITY 6,730 17.7 3,437 8.5

 

PRESELI PEMBROKESHIRE

Incumbent: Stephen Crabb. The most marginal Welsh Tory seat. Has to be a major target for Labour. All tactical voting sites recommend voting for Labour here.

2015 Election 2017 Election
Votes % Votes %
Conservative 16,383 40.4 18,302 43.4
Labour 11,414 28.1 17,988 42.6
Plaid Cymru 2,518 6.2 2,711 6.4
Independent 3,729 9.2 1,209 2.9
Liberal Democrat 780 1.9 1,106 2.6
UKIP 4,257 10.5 850 2
MAJORITY 4969 12.3 314 0.8

 

VALE OF GLAMORGAN

Incumbent: Alun Cairns. Big drop in majority last time, and caught in scandal about party worker involved in rape case. All tactical voting sites recommend voting for Labour here.

2015 Election 2017 Election
Votes % Votes %
Conservative 23,607 46 25,501 47.5
Labour 16,727 32.6 23,311 43.4
Plaid Cymru 2,869 5.6 2,295 4.3
Liberal Democrat 1,309 2.5 1,020 1
UKIP 5,489 10.7 868 1.6
Green Party 1,054 2 419 0.8
MAJORITY 6,880 13.4 2,190 4.1

 

 

Labour seats

CARDIFF NORTH

Incumbent: Anna McMorrin. Enthusiastic Remainer. Has been a Tory seat in the past. A straight CON/LAB fight. All tactical voting sites recommend voting for Labour here.

2015 Election 2017 Election
Votes % Votes %
Labour 19,572 38.3 26,081 50.1
Conservative 21,709 42.4 21,907 42.1
Plaid Cymru 2,301 4.5 1,738 3.3
Liberal Democrat 1,953 3.8 1,714 3.3
UKIP 3,953 7.7 582 1.1
MAJORITY 2,137 4.1 4,174 8.0

 

GOWER

Incumbent: Tonia Antoniazzi. Enthusiastic Remainer. Seat was narrowly Conservative in 2015. All tactical voting sites recommend voting for Labour here.

2015 Election 2017 Election
Votes % Votes %
Conservative 15,862 37.1 19,458 42.7
Labour 15,835 37 22,727 49.9
Plaid Cymru 3,051 7.1 1,669 3.7
Liberal Democrat 1,552 3.6 931 2
UKIP 4,773 11.2 642 1.4
Green Party 1,161
MAJORITY CON/LAB 27 0.1 3,269 7.2

 

NEWPORT WEST

Incumbent: Ruth Jones, elected in 2018 by-election. Solid Remainer. Straight LAB/CON race. All tactical voting sites recommend voting for Labour here.

2015 Election 2017 Election
Votes % Votes %
Labour 16,633 41.2 22,723 52.3
Conservative 13,123 32.5 17,065 39.3
UKIP 6,134 15.2 1,100 2.5
Plaid Cymru 1,604 4 1,077 2.5
Liberal Democrat 1,581 3.9 976 2.2
GreenParty 1,272 3.2 497 1.1
MAJORITY 3,510 8.7 5,658 13.0

 

VALE OF CLWYD

Incumbent: Chris Ruane. Third smallest Labour majority in Wales in 2015 and second smallest in 2017. All tactical voting sites recommend voting for Labour here.

2015 Election 2017 Election
Votes % Votes %
Labour 13,523 38.4 19,423 50.2
Conservative 13,760 39 17,044 44.1
Plaid Cymru 2,486 7.1 1,551 4
Liberal Democrat 915 2.6 666 1.7
UKIP 4,577 13
MAJORITY CON/LAB 237 0.6 2,379 6.1

 

WREXHAM

Incumbent: Ian Lucas, who is retiring. Strong Remainer. Smallest Labour majority in Wales. All tactical voting sites recommend voting for Labour here.

2015 Election 2017 Election
Votes % Votes %
Labour 12,181 37.2 17,153 48.9
Conservative 10,350 31.6 15,321 43.7
Plaid Cymru 2,501 7.6 1,753 5
Liberal Democrat 1,735 5.3 865 2.5
UKIP 5,072 15.5
MAJORITY 1,831 5.6 1,832 5.2

 

YNYS MÔN

Incumbent: Albert Owen, who is retiring. This has been a Plaid Cymru seat in the past. May be closer than 2017 result would suggest. Tactical voting sites recommend Plaid Cymru or Labour.

2015 Election 2017 Election
Votes % Votes %
Labour 10,871 31.1 15,643 41.9
Conservative 7,393 21.2 10,384 27.8
Plaid Cymru 10,642 30.5 10,237 27.4
Liberal Democrat 751 2.2 479 1.3
UKIP 5,121 14.7 624 1.7
MAJORITY LAB/PC 229 0.6 5,259 14.5

 

 

Liberal Democrat seat 

BRECON AND RADNORSHIRE

Incumbent: Jane Dodds. This is a LD/Con marginal. LD gained it in by-election, where PC stood aside. All tactical voting sites recommend voting for The Liberal Democrats here.

2015 Election 2017 Election 2019 By Election
Votes % Votes % Votes %
Conservative 16,453 41.1 20,081 48.6 12,401 39
Liberal Democrat 11,351 28.3 12,043 29.1 13,826 43.5
Labour 5,904 14.7 7,335 17.7 1,680 5.3
UKIP 3,338 8.3 576 1.4 242 0.8
Plaid Cymru 1,767 4.4 1,299 3.1
Green Party 1,261 3.1
MAJORITY CON/LD 5,102 12.8 8,038 19.5 1,425 4.5

 

Plaid Cymru seats

ARFON

Incumbent: Hywel Williams. 2017 majority squeezed by Con/Lab fight. All tactical voting sites recommend voting for Plaid Cymru here.

2015 Election 2017 Election
Votes % Votes %
Plaid Cymru 11,790 43.9 11,519 40.8
Labour 8,122 30.3 11,427 40.5
Conservative 3,521 13.1 4,614 16.4
UKIP 2,277 8.5
Liberal Democrat 718 2.7 648 2.3
Socialist Labour Party 409 1.5
MAJORITY 3,668 13.6 92 0.3

 

CARMARTHEN EAST AND DINEFWR

Incumbent: Jonathan Edwards. 2017 majority squeezed by Con/Lab fight. A PC/LAB battle. All tactical voting sites recommend voting for Plaid Cymru here.

2015 Election 2017 Election
Votes % Votes %
Plaid Cymru 15,140 38.4 16,127 39.3
Labour 9,541 24.2 12,219 29.8
Conservative 8,336 21.2 10,778 26.3
UKIP 4,363 11.1 985 2.4
Green Party 1,091 2.8
Liberal Democrat 928 2.4 920 2.2
MAJORITY 5,599 14.2 3,908 9.5

 

CEREDGION

Incumbent: Ben Lake. A PC/LD battle. Both Remain. Tactical voting sites recommend voting for Plaid Cymru here.

2015 Election 2017 Election
Votes % Votes %
Plaid Cymru 10,347 27.7 11,623 29.2
Liberal Democrat 13,414 35.9 11,519 29
Conservative 4,123 11 7,307 18.4
UKIP 3,829 10.2 602 1.5
Labour 3,615 9.7 8,017 20.2
Green Party 2,088 5.6 542 1.4
MAJORITY 3,067 8.2 104 0.2

 

Remain Alliance

On 7th November Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens announced an electoral pact in 11 of the 40 seats in Wales. The LibDems and Greens have also agreed to stand down, each in favour of the other, in 49 seats in England. This has not been without controversy in Wales since at least two of the Labour seats have been held by passionately pro-Remain MPs, who have resigned from Shadow positions on the issue: Jo Stevens in Cardiff Central and Owen Smith in Pontypridd. Owen Smith is not standing. Jo Stevens is one of the signatories of the Remain Labour Campaign Pledge (See below)

Seat Held by Remain Alliance rep.
Arfon Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru
Carmarthenshire E & Dinefwr Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru
Caerphilly Labour Plaid Cymru
Llanelli Labour Plaid Cymru
Pontypridd Labour Plaid Cymru
Ynys Mon Labour Plaid Cymru
Cardiff Central Labour Liberal Democrat
Brecon & Radnorshire Liberal Democrat Liberal Democrat
Montgomeryshire Conservative Liberal Democrat
Vale of Glamorgan Conservative Green Party